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Advanced modelling for recovery

Synergy’s economic modelling analysis for a major government department resulted in potential response scenarios.

The year that changed everything
10 minutes

Synergy formed an understanding of how critical infrastructure sectors would respond to and recover from the pandemic

Just like any big business, government departments must assess the impacts of COVID-19. This includes potential new costs, levels of community resilience, and the impacts on critical infrastructure.

Synergy was tasked with an economic modelling analysis for a major government department to provide potential response scenarios.

Assessing resilience

Part of the modelling study involved assessing the impact and potential costs of the pandemic on critical infrastructure, and community resilience in terms of economic output, GDP and job loss or disruption.

Many factors underpin our nation’s economic prosperity and national security – and with international borders shutting down, this is most obviously detrimental for the agriculture, education and tourism sectors. The impacts on these, and other sectors, then have flow-on effects for government.

For the modelling, Synergy focused on the reactions of these critical infrastructure sectors:

  • Banking and Finance
  • Health
  • Food and Grocery
  • Transport
  • Water
  • Communications
  • Energy and Digital.

Synergy applied input-output econometric modelling to measure the direct, indirect and spill-over impacts on local industries and communities for the next five years.

Scenario planning

An output of the modelling was a report that visualised and narrated the complex data in the context of best- and worst-case scenarios.

The modelling was used to inform the department’s plan in its support for governments, industries, and residents during the pandemic.

What we looked at…

  • Critical infrastructure dependency and interdependency
  • Economic importance and impact of critical infrastructure
  • Sovereign economic future
  • COVID-19 impact
  • International border control

How we did it…

  • Critical infrastructure dependency and interdependency graphic design
  • Inter-industry spill-over
  • Applied input-output econometrics
  • Sensitivity analysis
  • COVID-19 scenario design
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